I think this number is too big, as these teams are pretty closely rated overall. This game will feature the No. 1 offensive DVOA (Dallas) against the No. 1 defensive DVOA (Philadelphia), while each team’s unit is less impressive when the Eagles have the ball. However, the Eagles have been great on special teams, and that could help swing this game, or at least keep it close.

The Eagles rebounded from a two-game losing streak with a strong performance in last week’s 21-10 win over the Vikings. They held Minnesota to 282 yards of total offense and forced four turnovers, despite committing four of their own. Dallas has a five-game losing streak and comes into Sunday night’s game off a bye after its two-touchdown road win against the Packers. The Cowboys have covered their last two as a home chalk but Philadelphia's No. 2-ranked defense should do enough to keep the Eagles close, and I like the value with the underdog and the points.

A bye week plus the unflappable QB Dak Prescott plus the return of WR Dez Bryant plus NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott pounding away at a defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry (tied for ninth-highest) equals a Cowboys’ cover. Oh, yes, there is the night-time setting at Jerryworld. And the fact Dallas has yet to give up 100 yards to any rusher or receiver all year.

A lot of the focus will be on the two rookie QBs, but the real focus should be on the Eagles' D-line against the Cowboys' O-line. Combine the Cowboys' run game with the fact that Dak Prescott plays efficient, mistake-free football, and that will be the difference. Look for Dallas to force a couple turnovers en route to a win and cover.

Off a bye week, this seems like a short number for the Cowboys. Yet, this season they've had a difficult time within their division, losing to the Giants and holding on against the Redskins. Sometimes a break can be harmful to a rookie who's in rhythm. With added pressure driven by the media and QB Tony Romo's potential return, look for Dak Prescott to show for the first time all season why he was a fourth-round pick. Another outlier for the Eagles is their ability to score unconventionally; the last three weeks, they've notched two special teams TDs and a pick-six.

The Cowboys have been awful over the years as home favorites, and have gone 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. But they have covered the number in their last five overall. The Eagles had some trouble on the road at Detroit and Washington before coming up with a big performance at home against the previously unbeaten Vikings. Their No. 5-ranked defense looked outstanding. I think this is a good spot for Philly to slow the top-ranked rush offense and for Dak Prescott to have added pressure with Tony Romo's return looming. Take the points with Philly.