Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Maybe I could be jumping in on the sucker side, but I am officially ready to fade the steam coming in on the worst team in the NFL. Most books opened around Jets -4.5 and now it’s inside of a field goal. Although New York has problems, Cleveland’s are worse. Quarterback Josh McCown is expected to try and return from injury. But if he can’t go, rookie dual-threat Kevin Hogan will start. I expect improved play from Ryan Fitzpatrick and this play-against price on Cleveland is too lean to pass up.
Either this line is supposing Kevin Hogan will be at quarterback for Cleveland, or that Ryan Fitzpatrick has become a far superior quarterback after being benched for a quarter or so. However, it appears Josh McCown will get the start, and he should be able to take advantage of a porous Jets pass defense. The Jets are a bad team, ranking 31st in overall DVOA (only ahead of Cleveland, and just barely); a bad team giving points on the road is almost an automatic fade. The McCown factor is enough to give the Browns their first win.
Two reasons why this game should exceed the total: (1.) the Browns’ offense, (2.) the Browns’ defense. Josh McCown is their best QB among the masses and is expected to start. His lone game this season generated 45 points, and six of seven dates last year in which he played most of the way produced well over the 43.5. Cleveland’s defense is atrocious, better only than Oakland’s, and Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is determined to show skeptical coaches and management that he belongs in the lineup.
This is a modest number for the Jets versus the hapless Browns. Ryan Fitzpatrick avoided turnovers in last week's win over Baltimore, and I think he'll do the same against Cleveland. I'm projecting the Jets, who are more talented than their record, to win by a touchdown.