Earlier I played the Cardinals on the moneyline; I'm also taking them plus the field goal. Arizona has underperformed based on its talent, but this team is still 21-7 ATS in its last 28 against losing teams and usually bounces back well from an ATS loss (17-7 ATS last 24 games).

Coming off their 6-6 tie with Seattle, the Cardinals travel to the scene of last year's NFC Championship Game to play the rested Panthers. But this is not the same Carolina team at all. My simulations show Arizona winning outright 55 percent of the time.

Arizona has had its share of problems in the passing game, but Carolina has been awful in coverage this year, so this could be a get-right game for the Cardinals' receivers. David Johnson is humming along as a force in the ground game, and he'll give a good Carolina rush defense trouble. Arizona's defense has by and large been one of the top units in the league, and they proved it last week against the Seahawks for 75 minutes. They should be up to the task against a Panthers offense with something to prove. Arizona wins a close game here.