This play is more of a market data play than anything for me. My simulations have this game at JAC -2 but I've seen enough signals in the market to make the play despite no real value in the model. The Jags are receiving just 25 percent of the spread tickets, but have moved to -2. This line movement typically means the Jags are the sharp side. The early start time should hurt the Raiders as they travel cross country.

I like Jaguars corners Jalen Ramsey, Prince Amukamara and Aaron Colvin to limit the damage by Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville should get a decent running game going against a defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry. In the only other game where Jacksonville ran the ball well, the Jags put up 30 points.

This is a good spot for the Jaguars with the Raiders traveling across the country for the first of back-to-back 1 p.m. kickoffs in Florida. Oakland opened the season on fire offensively but has struggled to move the ball in two of the last three weeks, and the Jaguars have been a solid defensive team this season. Jacksonville is looking to build off two straight wins, and this could be a chance for their offense to come alive, with the Raiders ranking near the worst in the league against both the run and pass.

The Raiders have proven to perform better on the road thus far this season, both against the spread and on the field. They are coming off a blowout home loss to the Chiefs, but my simulations show them winning 55 percent of the time in this matchup against the Jaguars. Oakland still has the NFL’s worst defense, but a Jacksonville offense that ranks No. 31 overall is unlikely to take advantage of it. Oakland has the superior firepower and will get back on track with a road victory Sunday.