The Colts have a lot of issues. We know that. But what I see is a team on the brink of breaking through with a big win. They're involved in close games every week and the only thing keeping them from a 4-0 run coming in, besides their soft defense, is a couple of field goals. They lost to Houston by 3 and they lost to Jacksonville in London by 3. Both their wins have been down to the final minute as well. Basically, they play to the level of their opponents. They're 8-1 ATS in the last nine vs. Tennessee.

This line has a chance to keep climbing, so grabbing it now. The Colts are decimated by injuries and the Titans are rising. Tennessee should run all over an Indy defense giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

Indy has been a dumpster fire, and at no time was that more apparent than last week, when they had their first legit cover in hand before experiencing a complete meltdown and losing to Houston in OT. Tennessee on the other hand ranks 10th in DVOA on offense and ninth on defense, playing well in all phases of the game aside from their brutal special teams unit. The Titans should run all over the Colts, while a defense that ranks fourth in points allowed per drive will slow the Colts' uneven offense. Tennessee is the much better team, so this line feels like free money.

The Colts blew a 14-point lead at Houston on Sunday night, and now they head to Tennessee sitting one game behind the improved Titans. But my computer projections show Indy is still the better team. The Colts -- who have beaten Tennessee nine straight times -- are winning outright in 54 percent of my simulations. That makes them a strong play at +125.