The Bills likely will be without LeSean McCoy. My projections show 39 points scored, with the Under cashing 64 percent of the time. Look for the Under to improve to 8-3 in Miami's last 10 games on grass.

The Bills have covered five of the past six meetings with the Dolphins and are riding high with four straight wins and covers on the season, but Buffalo is without top RB LeSean McCoy and it's not reflected in the number -- he's worth just over a half-point. The number was already high to begin with -- about two-points too high with McCoy in the lineup. I like the Dolphins to build on their momentum and confidence from beating the Steelers at home last week.

The Bills have the No. 1 rushing offense and the Dolphins have the 31st-ranked rush defense. Buffalo does a great job of generating pressure and outside of last week, the Dolphins don’t do a great job of handling it. This one is simple.