Atlanta was the one team to beat Carolina during the regular season last year, and the Falcons offense now ranks first in points per drive and net yards per pass attempt, second in offensive DVOA and fourth in yards per carry. Atlanta's defense has been nearly as bad as the offense has been good, but it does feature a No. 1 corner (Desmond Trufant) capable of taking away Kelvin Benjamin. Jonathan Stewart is still out, and Michael Oher’s absence shuffles an already-poor Carolina tackle depth chart. Throw in the Falcons’ special-teams advantage, and they should win this game at home.

The Panthers have played two of the best defenses in their first three games and lost them both. Denver and Minnesota both executed great defensive schemes against Cam Newton . The one team they played that wasn't an elite defense was the 49ers, and the Panthers rolled 46-27. Atlanta's defense is worse than San Francisco's. They give up 433 yards and 30 points a game, which ranks them No. 30 in the NFL. Carolina has covered six of the past eight meetings. Look for the Panthers to cover in a desperate spot at a cheap number.