Matthew Stafford's game-ending interception last week was only his third since Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator midway through last season. The Lions needed 17 penalties and seven dropped passes to lose at home to the Titans in Week 2. I think they bounce back with a creditable performance that keeps this one close.

My hesitation initially with picking Detroit was due to the losses of Ziggy Ansah and DeAndre Levy, which should give Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense a chance to get on track. Then the Packers had four defensive starters downgraded to either Doubtful or Out on Saturday, and I’m unable to stay away any longer. Their run defense gets a significant downgrade, while the absence of Sam Shields will hurt in pass coverage. Detroit has won three of the last five matchups outright, including in Green Bay last year, so this spot won’t be too big for the Lions.

Detroit struggled mightily on offense in a 16-15 home loss to Tennessee last week and will see how tough it is to play Green Bay without Calvin Johnson. The Lions are also without top running back Ameer Abdullah due to a foot injury, and the Packers have not exactly lit it up offensively in their first two games either. My simulations have the Under cashing 64 percent of the time.

The Packers have dominated this series, going 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings, but in the last few years the Lions have been extremely competitive, winning three of the last five. The last time they played it took a Hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers to beat the Lions. In November they won at Green Bay for the first time since 1991. So I see the tide turning a bit, and it's in line with the Lions' quality play over their last 10 regular season games where they have won and covered seven of them.