This total has been bet down 3 points since opening at 46 and is now in the value range in my simulations. The public consensus is that this is an easy under with two below average offenses, but I'm not convinced they are that poor. Chip Kelly's quick tempo makes this game difficult to project and my model seems to be much closer to the original number posted by Vegas at 46. Todd Gurley is going to get his for the Rams, the question is how will Blaine Gabbert work with Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton? I think Patton will quickly become the number one option for Gabbert. Take the Over.

Only one 49ers' home game went Over the total last year, and that was by 1.5 points in a 25-20 win over Baltimore. Chip Kelly's arrival might mean a quicker tempo, but it also means plenty of Carlos Hyde carries, which will churn the clock. The best of this number is long gone, and I'd love to have gotten 44 too, but 43 is a fairly key number (4 TDs, 5 FGs) given the likelihood of several FG attempts. Both meetings last year stayed well Under, with an average of 34 points scored. Let's root for 20-plus carries apiece from Hyde and Todd Gurley and no special teams or defensive scores. Pound the rock!

The hiring of Chip Kelly and Blaine Gabbert's effectiveness in last year's marginal home win over the Rams are key angles lending support to the underdog 49ers. Also, coach Jeff Fisher's uneasy position combined with Case Keenum starting at QB are value detractors on the road. That said, the Rams possess a talent edge on defense and with tailback Todd Gurley to eke out a win and cover. X-factors like special teams, penalties and game management also should contribute to an L.A. victory.

Making a Case Keenum-led Rams team a road favorite is a little ridiculous despite the 49ers' mediocrity. Chip Kelly was a disaster as a GM in Philadelphia, but he's managed to put up a good record as a coach, in contrast to Jeff Fisher in his Rams stint. If Carlos Hyde (concussion) winds up missing this game, it might be a stayaway for me, but I think Blaine Gabbert can have success against a new-look Rams back seven that lost several starters this offseason. Todd Gurley will get his, but the 49ers should do enough to win a low-scoring game.

All you need to do is look at the two starting quarterbacks in this game and ask yourself, how are these teams going to score? I'm still wondering myself because the Rams are going with Case Keenum and the 49ers with Blaine Gabbert. That matchup alone screams low-scoring game to me, and my simulations show the Under cashing 69 percent of the time, with 65 percent of the public in agreement.

Rams quarterback Case Keenum is 5-10 in career starts, with one win in seven road games. 49ers counterpart Blaine Gabbert is worse at 8-27. L.A. coach Jeff Fisher is a run-first guy, and he will pound Todd Gurley all night after sparing him in the preseason. The approach will keep the clock ticking and get East Coasters to bed at a reasonable time. The Niners also will stick to the ground. This game belongs in the group with totals of about 41, yet it is a field goal higher. Unless defenses register a couple of scores, the Under looks inviting.