Two major red flags for Indy here: Vegas has dropped the line significantly from -6 despite seeing a majority of the action on Indy, and the home team is ravaged by injuries heading into Week 1. The Colts will be missing key members of the secondary (Vontae Davis), defensive line (Henry Anderson) and offensive line (Jack Mewhort) and don’t have the pass rush to challenge the Lions. Matt Stafford should have his way with Indy on offense, spreading the ball around and running up the score. Count on an outright Detroit win, but play it safe with the hook.

The best of the number is gone, but I still see value in the Lions, who quietly finished last season on a 6-2 SU and ATS run. OC Jim Bob Cooter worked wonders with Matthew Stafford (19 TDs, 2 INTs in those final eight games) after taking over midseason, and Calvin Johnson's retirement won't hurt as much as most think. Marvin Jones could have a huge day against a Colts defense already decimated by injuries. Most significant, Pro Bowl corner Vontae Davis (ankle) won't play.