Dallas has gone Under in four of its last five, with two of those games against up-tempo teams. The Mavs' offense ranks 18th, but their defense ranks ninth and their pace is average. Denver's pace is 27th, their defense is fifth best in the NBA and the Nuggets are 20-10 to the Under in 2018. They are also playing without three starters (Will Barton, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap).

My projections are really high on the Nuggets, but they've even more in the corner of Over, which is hitting in more than 70 percent of simulations. Each team is on Under trends, pushing this total too low. It misses the mark by 10 points according to my advanced computer model.

These are two of the top covering teams in the NBA, and Dallas has covered the past four meetings. But this will be their first meeting this season with Denver. The Nuggets come in hot, winning and covering their last three and 10 of 12. The Mavericks have lost their last two as favorites against the Kings and lowly Suns. They're 0-3 ATS in their last three. Nuggets get the cover Tuesday.

The Nuggets have covered six straight home games, and they've also beaten Dallas four straight times in Denver. The Mavs are 0-2 since Dirk Nowitzki returned. Lay it.