While the home team has dominated this series, I like the Celtics to at least hang close tonight thanks to Marcus Smart's return. His energy makes a huge difference. Grab the points as the Celtics cover for the eighth time in the last nine meetings.

Give the Celtics credit, when the game is in doubt, their defense comes to the rescue. In Game 5, the Bucks were held to 37 percent shooting and were 9-for-33 from beyond the arc. My simulations indicate Milwaukee will be held below its season average on offense. Boston is also an impressive 8-1 against the spread in its last nine conference quarterfinal games. It's the better team and it should cover.

Horrific shooting in Game 5 has caused this total to drop too far. Go Over as the Over cashes for the ninth time in the Bucks' last 10 home games.

I'm a bit surprised to see this total drop after Game 5's Under (92-87) halted an eight-game Over streak by the Celtics. It also halted a six-game Over streak between Boston and Milwaukee. Games 3 and 4 at Milwaukee had totals of 204 and 206 and both went Over. I'm looking for the Bucks to push the tempo Thursday at home and for Boston to play right along. Over is the top play in Game 6.

My data sees a minimum of 204 points hitting the scoreboard Thursday between the Celtics and Bucks, sending Game 6 of their first-round playoff series Over the posted total with a few buckets to spare. The Over is on a 6-1 run in this matchup and every game of the series had gone Over before the offenses stalled a bit in Game 5. But look for the tempo to pick back up in Milwaukee and another Over to cash.