The Heat are covering 66 percent of my simulations and winning outright slightly more than half the time. Back Miami in this critical game.

The Heat showed some upward signs as they defeated the Hornets in runaway fashion Wednesday. Yet, they were coming off multiple days' rest while the Hornets were playing in a back-to-back. Toronto, on the other hand, erased a steep deficit to win on the road against the Pistons. It was Kyle Lowry's return to the lineup. As the playoffs approach, this may seem like a spot to back the Raptors as they look to build momentum. Instead grab the Heat, who will aim to gain in the playoff race. Take the points.