Denver's strength is on offense and it gets Danilo Gallinari back tonight. I like playing against teams in the first game in which their start returns. Indiana's strength is its defense and, after allowing 140 to the Nuggets in Denver back in January, I expect the Pacers’ intensity on defense to be at a high level.

Indiana has won four straight home games by an average of 12.3 points entering Friday's game against visiting Denver. While the Nuggets crushed the Pacers by 28 in Denver on Jan. 12, this is a totally different scenario. In my simulations, the Pacers are covering 62 percent of the time. Lay the small number.