All three games in this series this season have been decided by six points or fewer. With the Pacers lineup missing Thaddeus Young and likely Lavoy Allen, this figures to be a tricky spot in a back-to-back scenario. Star Paul George has shown severe signs of fatigue, with all three of his season-low point totals coming in February. But I look for George to bounce back nicely and for the Pacers to play the Wizards tight once again.

Although the Pacers were probably given a little too much respect in Wednesday’s spread against Cleveland, they are being shorted in Thursday’s home game against the Wizards. In current form, Washington is no doubt the better team, with wins in 10 of its last 11, an overtime loss to the Cavs the lone blemish. Conversely, Indiana has lost five straight following a seven-game win streak. But its lone cover during that span was as an underdog at Washington, and this is still a relatively even matchup. The value is on the underdog.

The Wizards were resting while Indiana played at Cleveland on Wednesday night. Washington has won 10 of its last 11 games overall, and has covered seven straight visits to Indiana. Lay the small number.