The Rays are going to be better this season. But how much better is hard to say.

A rough spring training has left the Rays in the odd position of toning down expectations. Two key players -- ace left-hander Scott Kazmir and outfielder Rocco Baldelli -- are going to open the season on the disabled list, and their prospects for return are uncertain.

With Kazmir, the Rays believed they had one of the best young starting trios in the majors and enough depth to remain competitive in the rugged AL East. But without Kazmir, who seems likely to miss at least most of April, their rotation becomes suspect with James Shields moving into the No. 1 slot and Matt Garza, acquired from Minnesota, taking over as No. 2.

Positionally, the Rays were hoping that Baldelli, who missed all but 35 games last season, would fill the offensive, and defensive, void left by the trade of Delmon Young. But Baldelli will be out indefinitely as the result of a rare condition that leaves him extremely fatigued.

Instead, the Rays are left with Jonny Gomes, who is not particularly smooth, to play right field, and are looking for more help because Cliff Floyd, a free agent acquisition, will be limited to DH duties in all but rare circumstances. Another unknown is Carlos Pena's encore to his 46-homer breakout season.

There is some reason for optimism, however, with a full season from B.J. Upton, who reached 20-20 levels despite missing five weeks and having to learn two positions; the likely improvement of second baseman Akinori Iwamura, who struggled some in the transition from Japan; and a typical All-Star quality season from Carl Crawford.

Another area of concern is the bullpen. The Rays had the worst in baseball last season and made two free agent signings to make it better. But Troy Percival was retired last season, and Trever Miller is coming off his highest ERA for a full season in eight years.

For all the confident talk that flowed freely at the start of spring training -- Kazmir was saying the Rays were good enough to make the playoffs -- the team would realistically have to consider a .500 record, something it has never accomplished in its first 10 years, a significant success.

The Rays set a franchise record for spring training victories with their 15th on Sunday and need to carry that momentum into the season. After an opening trip to Baltimore and New York, they play 17 of their next 19 at home (though three are at the Disney complex) and have a chance to post a winning April.

PRIMED FOR A BIG SEASON
CF B.J. Upton had a pretty good season last year, becoming the first 20-20 player in Rays history. And he did that even though he had to make his first Opening Day roster and learn two new positions (second base and then center field) and also missed five weeks because of a strained left quad. With a full season, no injuries and a much higher comfort level in center, he has a chance to get to the 30-30 level and beyond. He has improved so much defensively, he could be an impact player on both sides of the ball.

ON THE DECLINE
RHP Dan Wheeler was acquired from Houston last July to provide depth and experience to the Rays bullpen. But he also has to get some people out, and he didn't do very well at that -- he was 0-5 with a 5.76 ERA in 25 games and allowed 39 baserunners in 25 innings. And that was after going 1-4, 5.07 in 45 games for the Astros.

Copyright (C) 2008 The Sports Xchange. All Rights Reserved.