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Here at Predictions Central, we've been blessed with the freaky power of being able to ascertain exactly what is going to happen in the upcoming season before, ahem, it actually happens.
(Nobody really ever prints and saves these predictions columns to see how they turn out, do they?)
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Ken Griffey may not be the same, but when healthy he can make a big impact. (Getty Images) |
We're on this amazing streak of picking every single division winner dating back to the day Ty Cobb had his false teeth installed.
(You don't think anybody really will go back and check, do you?)
We've nailed every wild-card winner since the format was but a gleam in commissioner Bud Selig's eye and, as for World Series winners, let's just say you could have won an awful lot of money had you taken our previous preseason predictions to Las Vegas.
(You don't think anybody actually was ever gullible enough to try that, do you?)
So now, with opening day bearing in on us more quickly than Larry Bowa storming out of the dugout to confront another umpire, we'd like to say just one thing before moving along to the predictions.
Thank goodness for the Dixie Chicks.
The way we see it, they've stirred up enough trouble that we could pick the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to win everything, the Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL pennant and Mo Vaughn as the world's greatest athlete, and we're fairly certain that we'd still remain under the radar while the Grammy winners continue to take the rotten tomatoes.
So thank you, Chicks. And as we move along to the predictions and awards, we want to make one more thing clear: If any winners in the following categories feel the urge to plant a juicy one on Halle Berry while collecting an award at the podium, please feel free.
Except you, Mr. David Justice. You had your chance. Plus, you retired.
Now, is that the faint strain of an umpire yelling "Play ball!" we just heard in the background? ...
Best opener: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Monday. Because opening day in Cincinnati is always festive, and because this year there's the added benefit of a housewarming party: Finally, the Reds are opening their Great American Ballpark and dropping that 1970s abomination formerly named Riverfront Stadium. Playing there was like listening to KC and the Sunshine Band for the past 25 years.
Best home opener: Cleveland's, against the Chicago White Sox on April 7. Guess who volunteered to pitch No. 2 in the White Sox rotation? Bartolo Colon, the former Indian himself -- setting up Colon against Cleveland in a Jacobs Field matinee.
Best free-agent opener: Philadelphia at Florida on March 31. Jim Thome, meet Ivan Rodriguez. And guys, those funny at-bats you'll notice? The pitchers. They hit in the National League.
AL East finish: Boston, New York Yankees, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore. Yep, that's right -- we're penciling in the Damn Yanks for second this year. Certain members of their rotation are older than Wayne Newton, their defense is getting worse by the year and it's obvious that owner George Steinbrenner is in panic mode.
AL Central: Minnesota, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City, Cleveland, Detroit. The White Sox aren't nearly as close to the Twins as some of them think they are. And as for third, fourth and fifth place in this division, it'll be like watching a group of kindergartners attempting to run in a straight line.
AL West: Oakland, Anaheim, Seattle, Texas. Best division in the AL, and Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle each can make a legitimate case for winning it.
AL wild card: Anaheim. We've got Oakland winning the division again for three reasons -- Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder -- but the Angels are a gritty club that will not soften after last year's World Series title.
Date of Pete Rose's reinstatement to baseball: Possibly this Sunday, March 30, to coincide with the premiere of the Travel Channel's new show, World Poker Tour.
First Hall of Famer to rip Rose afterward: Bob Feller. We know he has supported Rose in the past, but he'll find something wrong somewhere. Feller is crankier than NYPD Blue's Andy Sipowicz. Maybe that's why we love the guy.
NL East: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Florida, New York Mets, Montreal. The Braves' rotation is dramatically different this year, but after 11 consecutive division titles, our philosophy is that Atlanta will let us know when it is ready to abdicate.
NL Central: St. Louis, Houston, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee. Color 2003 red, it's going to be the Year of the Cardinal.
NL West: Arizona, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, San Diego. This is the way we see it shaping up for now, though if either Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling gets hurt and misses time, we reserve the right to radically change our minds in this division.
NL wild card: Philadelphia. There might be an awful lot of screaming and kicking, but manager Larry Bowa will drag the Phillies into October.
Most ridiculous road trip: In June, Montreal must fly from a Puerto Rico "homestand" all the way to Seattle to start an interleague series. We're not sure, but we think the flight to Australia is shorter.
Advance preview of author/pitcher David Wells' next book: He really was the captain of the Exxon Valdez ("So there I was, crashed out on the floor, all of these empty bottles of Captain Morgan Spiced Rum surrounding me, and all of a sudden we hit these rocks and oil starts gushing into the sea ...")
He was Deep Throat during the Washington Post Watergate investigation in the 1970s ("I didn't mean to tell Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein anything. Next thing I knew, there we were, bellied up to the bar, and I started singing like that cockatoo on Baretta ...")
He really is Michael Jackson ("I swore to myself after the first plastic surgery on my nose, never again would I sip on the tequila before making an important decision like that. So happens? On an all-night binge in Tijuana, I let my posse talk me into getting a second nose job. Enough, I said, upon sobering up. And it was enough ... for three years. That's when I was introduced to this new Mike's Hard Lemonade, and I was a few cases into that when I showed up for another nose job ...")
Surprise team, AL division: Toronto. GM J.P. Ricciardi has done an admirable job of shuffling players in a little over a year, Roy Halladay stepped up to ace status last year, third baseman Eric Hinske was rookie of the year and outfielder Vernon Wells is an emerging star. The Blue Jays will be more competitive than people think this year.
Surprise team, NL division: Florida. A.J. Burnett's sore elbow could be a huge blow to the Marlins, but assuming it's not serious, there are some very good young arms here that should only get better. Burnett and Josh Beckett are a terrific one-two combo, and Ivan Rodriguez is playing for the big money after this year, so he'll be driven.
First manager fired: Bob Boone, Cincinnati. The Reds' pitching is not good, and four out of five scientists confirm, lack of pitching is the leading cause of fired managers.
First GM fired: Dan O'Dowd, Colorado. If the Rockies hit the skids, there's nobody else left to blame.
AL MVP: Garret Anderson, Anaheim. He's quiet, but he's had at least 28 homers and 117 RBI each of the past three seasons. He also hasn't played in fewer than 150 games since 1996, and he's played in at least 157 every year since 1999. The combination of his being there, his steadiness, his increasing knowledge of both the game and opposing pitchers and the solid team surrounding him means he won't remain quiet much longer.
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez, Boston. He was so close last year and, a year later, he's 12 more months removed from his shoulder trouble of 2001. Look for a stronger Pedro with something to prove.
AL manager of the year: Grady Little, Boston. Yes, we're expecting big things from the Red Sox this year.
AL rookie of the year: Mark Teixeira, Texas. We're a little shy about picking another rookie of the year from the Rangers' camp after Hank Blalock let us down in 2002. Still, Teixeira is as sure of a can't-miss kid as there is out there. He should become Texas' third baseman for years to come.
NL MVP: Scott Rolen, St. Louis. Contract hassles are behind him, he won't be changing teams at midyear this season, he's healthy ... yep, everything is aligned for a smashing season from the third baseman who still has that new-car smell in St. Louis.
NL Cy Young: Matt Morris, St. Louis. Come on, Randy Johnson is 40!
NL manager of the year: Bobby Cox, Atlanta. When the Braves put the finishing touches on division title No. 12 in a row, everybody will be talking about the masterful job Cox did in a year in which the Braves lost Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood.
NL rookie of the year: Lyle Overbay, Arizona. He's the reason why the Diamondbacks felt free to trade Erubiel Durazo to Oakland last winter. He had a rough spring, but with Mark Grace tutoring him and with a little experience, Overbay should be just fine. He's hit everywhere he's been.
Best comeback stories: Ken Griffey Jr., Cincinnati. Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort, Los Angeles. Mo Vaughn, New York Mets. Wouldn't it make things more interesting to hear those names on a daily basis again?
Toughest managerial assignment: Eric Wedge, Cleveland. They're still close enough to the glory days in Cleveland that the fans haven't forgotten, yet they're still too far away from future success to see it.
Toughest managerial assignment, veteran skipper dept.: Bruce Bochy, San Diego. Whew, boy, is it going to be a long year for those Padres without closer Trevor Hoffman and left fielder Phil Nevin. This is a team that lost a reliever, Jay Witasick, for two weeks this spring when he strained his forearm tossing a bag of trash into a dumpster.
Most brutal April schedule: Texas. Nice time to be in the AL West with the unbalanced schedule going in full force. Between March 30 and April 27, in order, here are the Rangers' opponents: Anaheim, Seattle, Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland, Boston and the New York Yankees. That's 25 games without a breather in sight.
Biggest surprise story: If you were reading carefully above, you probably noticed that we've got the big, bad New York Yankees ... home in October!! Mark it down: This is the year age, mediocre defense and Raul Mondesi in right field catch up to the Yankees and finally nudge them out of the playoffs. Hey, we're not saying the Yanks won't be tough. They will be -- extremely tough. It's just that the gap has closed between the Yanks and the rest of the American League -- as evidenced by Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle, Minnesota and Boston. Their exquisite run has to end one of these years, and we're saying that this is the year.
World Series: St. Louis and Oakland. Winner: The Cardinals. Tough lineup, so many Gold Gloves they've gotta store some in the basement, and Matt Morris gets more dominant every year.
Now all that's left is brushing up on the lyrics to Take Me Out to the Ballgame ...
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