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By the Numbers: What's in a name?

 

Last week's big gainers on the NL-only Most Added list keep finding new Fantasy teams to join. As owners are always looking to get the jump on the latest pitching find, Max Scherzer, Aaron Cook and Jon Rauch continue to soar in popularity. Of course, you need hitters, too, and Ryan Church, Ryan Doumit, Ryan Theriot and some guys not named Ryan have all caught on as new additions in at least 10 percent of NL-only leagues this week. However, if you have enough pitchers and enough Ryans, you may be interested in the profiles below.

Guys in demand

Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco
Week 6 Ownership:
19 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 33 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 6nd (tied)
The Skinny: Lewis is all the rage in the Fantasy world because of a batting average that was recently as high as .337. Though that average has dropped to .303, his .382 on-base average and leadoff role are giving him plenty of opportunities to score runs. Whether Randy Winn and Bengie Molina can drive him in is another story. The good news is that there is nothing misleading in his skill numbers. Freddie is doing what Freddie normally does: hit with just barely enough pop to hold down an outfield corner, walk frequently, steal some bases and whiff enough to create a small windstorm. He is on pace to have a Bobby Abreu-type season, but unless he can cut down on the Ks, a .270 BA and .350 OBP are more realistic.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Fresno (Triple-A) 13% 24% 0.177 34% N/A
2007 San Francisco 11% 20% 0.121 34% 5.7
2008 San Francisco 11% 26% 0.193 39% 7.0

Felipe Lopez, 2B, Washington
Week 6 Ownership:
37 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 51 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Added: 6th (tied)
The Skinny: Lopez has been on a tear for the last week and half, raising his average from .254 to .276. He has finished a season with an average above .270 only twice, in 2005 and 2006. In both of those seasons, he had a 33 percent H/BIP, just like he has right now. That rate was more believable then when he was hitting with considerably more power. Beneath that inflated H/BIP is a hitter who looks a lot like Jason Bartlett, but with a few more walks. Granted, there may not be many better options in NL-only leagues, but Kazuo Matsui is one who may still be on waivers. He is actually available in more leagues, and he will give you a better average, more steals and not much of a dropoff in power.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2006 Cincinnati/Washington 12% 20% 0.107 33% 5.2
2007 Washington 8% 18% 0.106 29% 3.7
2008 Washington 9% 18% 0.067 33% 4.1

Others drawing interest

Rank Player Week 6 ownership Week 7 ownership Percentage change
1 Max Scherzer, SP, Arizona 65% 88% 23%
2 Ryan Church, OF, N.Y. Mets 60% 80% 20%
3 Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh 73% 91% 18%
4 Aaron Cook, SP, Colorado 53% 70% 17%
5 Jon Rauch, RP, Washington 36% 52% 16%

The guys dropping like flies

J.R. Towles, C, Houston
Week 6 Ownership:
53 percent
Week 7 Ownership: 45 percent
Rank in NL-only Most Dropped: 4th (tied)
The Skinny: Over the last two weeks, Towles' owners have been giving up on him in droves. There's no question that it is hard to stand by a catcher that isn't hitting his weight, and Towles is a light catcher. In most leagues, there is no shortage of upgrades available, from Jason Kendall to Chris Iannetta to Paul Bako (yes, Bako is an upgrade right now). In the long run, though, Towles will be the most productive of this group. He is too powerful of a hitter to continue to make outs on 85 percent of the balls he puts in play. Keep him on reserves if you can or monitor him on your Scout Team, but just don't completely throw in the Towles.

Year Team Walk Rate Whiff Rate Iso Power H/BIP RC/27
2007 Corpus Christi (Double-A) 10% 16% 0.227 35% N/A
2008 Houston 12% 21% 0.205 15% 3.6

Others wearing roster repellant

Rank Player Week 6 ownership Week 7 ownership Percentage change
1 Manny Corpas, RP, Colorado 41% 29% - 12%
2 Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati 66% 57% - 9%
2 Mike Pelfrey, SP, N.Y. Mets 34% 25% - 9%
4 Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati 44% 36% - 8%
4 Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia 27% 19% - 8%

Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.