Zack Greinke comes off his best start of the season, allowing no runs, four hits and walking none over 7.2 innings against the Pirates. Arizona is 7-3 behind him this season, and he's thrived on the Padres over his career. He is 13-2 with a 2.30 ERA against them. Last month, he allowed just two runs in seven innings against them. Arizona is the play Tuesday.

The Diamondbacks are a heavy public team tonight but I agree with the public support. The negative park shift certainly hurts the offense, but it helps Zack Greinke more. Arizona is third in baseball against left-handed pitching with .357 team wOBA in a pretty significant sample size (over 200 more PA than first place Astros). I have Arizona winning 53 percent of simuations.

This Diamondbacks team is the best in the league at scoring runs against lefties and third in the league in OPS against lefties. Zack Greinke is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA, and it’s inflated by an opening day 3.2 IP, seven earned run game. This Diamondbacks team is 14-10 on the road and 7-3 when Greinke starts. Take the Diamondbacks with their ace on the mound against a lefty.