Betting against Corey Kluber is rarely fun, but my wOBA model suggests there is good value on the Red Sox at home behind Porcello. Boston is the best team in baseball right now, and Kluber must deal with a large negative park shift at Fenway. Kluber can definitely handle tough conditions, but this is as tough as it gets this season. Anytime you can get the Red Sox at near even money on their home field I think it's worth a play. My model agrees, suggesting Boston should be -123. Lay it.

It's a must-see matchup at Fenway on Monday when the Indians' Corey Kluber faces Boston's Rick Porcello in a matchup of division leaders. Kluber has fanned 21 and walked three over his last three starts, and Cleveland has won 22 of his last 30 road starts. Porcello has been far more inconsistent this season. It's a good spot to fade the best team in baseball.