Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi is an above-average pitcher coming off of a bad game, so I'm looking for him to bounce back Wednesday. The Red Sox are a 30- cent drop off on the road and will also be without Mookie Betts , providing another 20-cent drop. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez has an ERA of 3.02 at home. The backdrop is set for an Under in this one.

I’m also going to play the Red Sox on the runline at -1.5 (+135) simply due to the high variance nature of a loaded lineup like this Boston team. The best part of a road matchup for this team is the guaranteed 9th inning team at bat where they will have the chance to pack on the runs. Yes, the Phillies will also have a chance to bat in the 9th if the Red Sox are winning, but I’m more than comfortable with the Red Sox bullpen in this park.

The wOBA model doesn't agree with the line movement in this game that open at -140 and currently sits at -126. With Eovaldi getting a nice park and league shift to the National League, I have the Red Sox winning 60 percent of simulations. Vincent Velasquez is a great pitcher, but this Red Sox team is one of the best teams in baseball history and this is a very fair price at -126. Lay it with the road favorite.