The Manny Machado trade is perhaps one reason this line has skyrocketed. I'll take the value with Baltimore and Dylan Bundy, who owns a 1.17 career ERA versus Toronto (eight outings, four starts). Play the road dog.

My numbers have the Blue Jays toppling the Orioles in 65 percent of simulations for their Friday matchup, making Toronto worth the price as a moderate home chalk. The Blue Jays have won four straight when starter Sam Gaviglio pitches on full rest, and are 5-1 in their past six Friday games. The Orioles are 1-10 when Dylan Bundy takes the mound against AL East opponents.