Jacob deGrom got Over the total in his last start at Coors Field, where the Mets' bats came alive in a 12-2 win. He allowed just one earned run, which makes it a total of seven yielded in his last 11 starts. Nine of those starts have stayed Under with the weak Mets lineup. Clayton Kershaw makes his first start since May 31 and the Dodgers are 2-6 behind him this season. Under is the play.

The Mets are 6-9 in starts by Jacob deGrom this season, and 2-7 in his last nine. Which is ridiculous considering deGrom has an ERA of 1.51 on the season. In fact, it's so ridiculous that I just can't see the trend continuing. Even if Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers, it's his first start in over three weeks, and I don't expect him to be very sharp. Take the value the Mets are providing at home with one of the best pitches in the game on the mound.

The Mets' bats, which were frightfully silent for a good three-week period, finally began to boom in the final half of their recent 10-game road trip. Unfortunately, their pitching couldn't keep up, dropping the Amazin's to 10 games below .500. On Saturday, it's a great matchup of Clayton Kershaw vs. Jacob deGrom. While both starters are projected to have excellent outings, Kershaw gets the better of deGrom as the Mets' bats are muffled yet again. The simulations reveal the Dodgers winning this contest 67 percent of the time by nearly a run and a half. Back the underdog Dodgers.