The Dodgers are clearly the better team with Kershaw on the mound. However, The Astros certainly win his game more than the 38.9 percent implied probability at +157. My simulations have the Astros coming out on top 45 percent of the time, creating a fair value at +157.

So happy Clayton Kershaw is finally starting a World Series game. Why wouldn't he be up for the moment he's been waiting for his entire life? I expect him to be the same dominant starter we've seen all season. The Dodgers went 26-4 behind him this season, but it's not often I get to lay such a cheap price on him. The best starter with the best bullpen has been an almost unbeatable combo. Dodgers take Game 1.

As mentioned in my total writeup, Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average since his return from the DL. His ERA is 3.53 with 11 home runs allowed in 51 innings. Kershaw has been just 15 cents better than the average pitcher over those 9 outings with his best start coming against the San Francisco Giants. Kershaw has struggled to get to the 7th inning against playoff-caliber teams. Even though this is a bet against Kershaw, I do like the way Dallas Keuchel is pitching. For the season and over his last five away starts, he has been 40 cents better than the average pitcher on the road. Corey Seager returns for the Dodgers, but it has been two weeks since he has seen live pitching. Play on Houston as a big underdog.

The temperature is going to be in the mid 80's at first pitch with very little humidity. With this kind of weather, the ball will carry very well instead of just hanging up in the thick night air. Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average over his last nine starts since returning from the DL. In 51 innings he has allowed 47 hits, 20 earned runs and 11 home runs. WOW! Eleven home runs in 51 innings for an ERA of 3.53. Dallas Keuchel was far better at home than on the road; his batting average against was .187 at home and .245 away. Even his two playoff home starts were far better than his away start at Yankee Stadium. Now let's get to the hitters. Plain and simple, both teams hit lefties better than righties. Go Over at this great price.

The Astros have won one of their last seven games at Dodger Stadium and I see that trend continuing, at least for Game 1. Dallas Keuchel has been somewhat hittable on the road down the stretch. I'll back Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who are getting SS Corey Seager back.

I'm playing the Dodgers on the run line in Game 1, as they're covering nearly half my simulations at +135. Lay 1.5 runs with LA and Clayton Kershaw.