The Indians have the second-best record in baseball over the past 30 games. Starter Trevor Bauer Bauer is 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in August. Kansas City starter Jason Vargas has been horrendous over the last two months. In 34 1/3 innings, he has allowed 45 hits and 27 runs for an ERA of 7.08.

I’ve got the home underdog Royals winning more than 60 percent of simulations in their Saturday matchup against the surging Indians, giving us a must-take on Kansas City with the plus-money payback. Royals starter Jason Vargas is 6-1 with a 3.17 ERA in his career against Cleveland, and my numbers say he will get the best of the Indians again Saturday.