Mets starter Steven Matz is 0-6 with a 7.73 ERA in his past eight starts, and opposing hitters are tagging him at a .386 clip since the All-Star break. Yankees starter Luis Severino has been solid, but the Mets should be able to muster some offense against him. Take the Over on Thursday versus this meager total.

The trusty projection model likes the Mets to take down the Yankees about half the time in their Thursday showdown, providing a huge bargain on the massive home underdog. The Yankees are on a 6-1 in starts by Luis Severino, but the Mets are 9-3 in their last 12 interleague home games.