Eduardo Rodriguez will make his second start since returning from the DL for a strained right knee. Rodriguez at just 24 is already an above-average pitcher. James Paxton has been very sharp in July and I also have Paxton rated about 20 cents better than Rodriguez at home. But offensively the Red Sox have a sizable edge on the road. This game is more of a pick'em. Back Boston.

I'll lay -160 with the Red Sox on the run line Monday night, as Boston is covering 71 percent of my simulations. Seattle has the pitching edge, but the Mariners have struggled at home lately versus winning teams (1-7). Back Boston plus 1.5 runs.