The Pirates are getting decent pitching and they field well. But their struggles at the plate have been great for staying Under the total. They've gone 25-5-1 to the Under in their last 26, including their last four games. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh have gone 18-6-2 to the Under in their last 26 meetings. Take the Under again when they meet Tuesday.

The first-place Brewers offer a lucrative overlay Tuesday against the surging Pirates, who have won nine of their last 11. Pittsburgh starter Ivan Nova has been mostly solid this season bur he has slipped a little of late, allowing four earned runs in two of his past four starts and two homers in each of his last two outings. Milwaukee’s current roster is hitting .375 against him. Brewers starter Junior Guerra gave up three runs in six innings in a start against the Pirates earlier this season.

I'm projecting 7.6 runs for Brewers-Pirates on Tuesday, giving us a solid lean to the Under. The Under is cashing in 65 percent of my simulations.