This is going to be a wager against Rays starter Jake Odorizzi. The Rays have lost six of his last seven starts, including his last three. His last start came at home against these same Orioles, who are one of the worst road teams in baseball. The Rays have now lost three straight starts behind Odorizzi against Baltimore. Dylan Bundy was good in his last outing after a couple shaky starts.

The trusty projection model says we should see nine or fewer runs at least 72 percent of the time in Saturday’s game between the Rays and Orioles, giving us a huge edge on the Under against a total of 11. The Rays are on a 6-0 Under run in road games, while Baltimore is 12-4 to the under in Dylan Bundy’s home starts.