Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The Rays get can to four games above .500 for the first time in more than two years with a win Friday against the Orioles. But I think Tampa Bay has overachieved to this point and is headed toward a regression. I've long believed Chris Archer gets priced as an elite starter but his performance doesn't support it -- he's 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA this year. The current Orioles lineup is hitting .260 against him. This is a good value spot on a big underdog.
The visiting Orioles are covering the run line Friday night in 63 percent of my simulations, making them a strong play at -105. The Rays are 4-11 in Chris Archer's last 15 starts on five days' rest.