Royals starter Jason Vargas had a great start against the Indians earlier this month, tossing six shutout innings, and the Royals have bounced back a bit from a terrible April. Even though they have a bad road record, we're getting good value against homer-prone Danny Salazar and his 5.55 ERA. And the Indians haven't been tearing things up at home either. Considering how each of these starters has performed this year, this should be closer to an even-odds matchup.

My projections have the Royals beating the Indians about 55 percent of the time in their Saturday matchup, making Kansas City a must-take as a substantial underdog. Kansas City is 8-3 in the last 11 starts by Jason Vargas against AL Central opponents, while the Indians have lost five of the last six outings by Danny Salazar against losing teams.