Rick Porcello has been anything but a Cy Young-winning pitcher so far this season, with Boston losing five of his nine starts. Last season at Fenway Park, the Red Sox lost just once behind him. This season, they've lost four of five of his Fenway starts already, as he's posted a 5.52 ERA. On the other side, Rangers starter Andrew Cashner isn't getting much talk, but he has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts. There is too much value on one of the hottest teams in baseball. Texas is the play Tuesday.

The Rangers, who have won 11 of their past 12 games, are covering this run line in 64 percent of my simulations, making them a strong play at -115. Take Texas plus 1.5 runs at Fenway.