Jordan Zimmerman has had a very poor start to the season, but this Tigers team shouldn't be +225 against Lance McCullers. Yes, McCullers has been good, but he's still over performance by many metrics. The Astros should win this game, but they certainly lose this game more than 30 percent of the time like this line implies. The wOBA model has the Tigers winning 40 percent of simulations, making them a strong value at +225.

The Tigers have lost Jordan Zimmermann's last four road starts, and that trend should hit five Tuesday in Houston. Lance McCullers has allowed a .285 on-base percentage this season. Lay the big number with the Astros.

The Astros are massive favorites Tuesday night at home against Detroit -- deservedly so. Lance McCullers has yielded no earned runs over his last three starts covering 19 innings. In my simulations, Houston is winning 76 percent of the time. Lay it.