Cubs starter Jon Lester has not been dominating early, as he has been below average in five of his eight starts. Reds pitcher Amir Garrett has been solid in four of his six starts. The Reds also have a far better lineup right now. Take Cincinnati in a strong underdog spot Thursday.

Amir Garrett is back to make another start for the Reds. He will deal with difficult pitching conditions this afternoon at Wrigley, but a chaotic run scoring environment certainly favors the underdog in this spot. Jon Lester has struggled at times this year and you know he will struggle holding runners against this Reds team if they reach base. The Reds are a top 10 offense against left-handed pitching with a .337 wOBA and the 5th best team in ISO. The wOBA model likes the value on the Reds at +170