The Reds must find a way to bounce back Saturday after a 17-inning loss Friday to the Giants. Yet, they're facing a starting pitcher in Matt Moore whose confidence is beyond rattled. Grab the contrarian play on the Reds, who are starting unknown Lisalverto Bonilla. Most of the public will be on San Francisco and expecting a letdown from Cincinnati.

The wOBA model suggests this line should be closer to -155. After a long 17 inning game on Friday I expect both teams to rest key players. Short rest and unknown should certainly favor the home team in this situation. Lay it with the Giants.