According to Statcast xwOBA data, Tyler Glasnow has been one of the must unlucky pitchers in 2017 with an expected wOBA 54 points lower than his actual wBOA allowed. Expecting positive regression on the road at Chase Field might seem unlikely, but my model likes the Pirates offense to provide enough run support to keep Glasnow in line for a win. The wOBA model has the Pirates winning 48 percent of simulations vs. Patrick Corbin.

Pittsburgh has lost five straight and nine of 12 entering Friday night's game at Arizona. But DBacks starter Patrick Corbin is eminently hittable and is coming off his worst outing this season. He's 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh. In my simulations, the Pirates are winning 50 percent of the time, making them a strong play at +128.