Jered Weaver has pitched well in his last three starts, but his young bullpen has failed him each time, and the Padres ended up losing all three. Weaver didn't get the loss in any other those, but still, the Padres have lost all four of his starts. You never know what you're going to get with Taijuan Walker, but Arizona playing at Chase Field is another story. The Diamondbacks give us runs almost every game (7.3 per) and they always hit well (.324). They are 10-2-1 to the Over at home this season. The top play Thursday is the Over.

My simulations see just nine runs crossing the plate Thursday between the Padres and Diamondbacks, giving us a strong position on the Under. San Diego is 9-4 to the Under against right-handed starters on the road, Arizona is 5-2 to the Under against teams with a winning percentage below .400.