Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli have all had at least 20 at-bats against Wednesday starter Jon Lester and haven't fared well, and Lester has been his normal high-quality self in four starts this year. On the flip side, Tyler Glasnow is putting way too many people on base and has proven to be far too hittable while piecing together a 7.94 ERA to date. If you can get the Cubs at a nice price, jump on it.

I really dislike backing the Cubs, but I have no choice tonight with the crazy line movement towards the Pirates. The wOBA model has the Cubs winning 63 percent of simulations, giving a projected line of -170. It's rare to have this kind of simulation value on a team like the Cubs at such a modest price. Lay it.

The price has come down a bit on the Cubs, and now I'm ready to lay it. Back the visitors.

My projections show the Cubs winning their game Wednesday against the Pirates nearly 70 percent of the time, making them a value even with the somewhat thick price. The Cubs have won nine of the last 10 road starts by Jon Lester against teams with losing records. The Pirates are on a 9-23 run against winning teams. Lay the price in this one.