It's officially do-or-die time for the Blue Jays, and my simulations show they are solid bet Tuesday to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Indians. My projection model shows Toronto, behind Aaron Sanchez, will win the game 65 percent of the time, providing a big overlay against the sportsbook price of just -120. Corey Kluber has been great in the postseason for Cleveland, but he is on short rest and just 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA in his career against Toronto. Back the Blue Jays to stay alive in the series.

There's really not a lot to think about here with the Indians up 3-0. Monday’s Game 3 was the big game for Toronto to grab. But now the reality is the series is basically over because 0-3 teams in this spot have gone 34-1, and the one comeback was when Indians manager Terry Francona did it for Boston in 2004. There doesn't seem to be much fight left in the Blue Jays. Corey Kluber hasn't allowed a run in both his postseason starts, and the Indians have won six straight starts behind him. Indians to win is the play.