The Rockies have lost five straight and got blown out, 12-3, last night at San Francisco in the first of a two-game set. This is a huge game for the Giants to stay one game up in the wild card race, but they've all been important the last month and there hasn't been any urgency. They've alternated wins and losses over their last eight and if the trend holds true tonight, they're scheduled to lose. The Giants are 6-20 in their last 26 following a win. Colorado's chances are enhanced even more by Tyler Chatwood (7-1, 1.87 ERA in 12 road starts). He's beaten the Giants in his last two starts against them. Grab the big dog.

While Colorado's Tyler Chatwood has been very good on the road this season, his last start away from home saw 11 runs scored in a 7-4 loss at Los Angeles. San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija has also earned just one win in his last six outings at AT&T Park. On paper, this may look like a low-scoring affair, but my simulations show just the opposite with the Over cashing 63 percent of the time and a projected total of nearly nine runs.