The Blue Jays let me down Tuesday, but the wOBA model is backing them again tonight with Aaron Sanchez vs. Yovani Gallardo. Sanchez is actually better on the road with just a .266 wOBA allowed and 0.45 HR/9 rate. Gallardo is a below league average pitcher that projects to struggle against this Toronto lineup at full strength. The wOBA model has the Blue Jays winning in 64 percent of simulations.

The rubber game between the Orioles and Blue Jays is big because the home team can pull within two games of first place in the AL East with a victory. However, I don't see that happening with Aaron Sanchez on the mound for Toronto opposite Baltimore's Yovani Gallardo. Sanchez clearly has the edge in that matchup, and my simulations agree as the Jays have a 67 percent chance to win as solid road favorites.