Yankees rookie Luis Cessa has been solid in winning his first two starts, allowing three runs combined over 12 innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts. He should be able to hold the Royals in check here and at least keep this game close. My simulations show the Yankees with a 79 percent chance to stay within +1.5 runline, which is very doable with Kansas City's Ian Kennedy due for a letdown after a torrid stretch.

This is a correlated pick to my side play on this game. Yankees rookie Luis Cessa has impressed in his first two starts, allowing three runs over 12 combined innings, while Royals starter Ian Kennedy is on an incredible roll. He's allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts. If Kennedy's game is on like he's been lately, the total most likely will stay Under. In his last 13 starts, the Under is 10-2-1.

Rookie right-hander Luis Cessa has looked extremely sharp in his first two starts for the Yankees -- allowing just three runs combined over 12 innings -- and the Yanks have won seven of their last 10 on the road. But Ian Kennedy is in a zone like never seen before in his career. The Royals have won his past four starts and he's allowed one run or less in five of his last six outings. He's been dominating opponents, but his pitcher rating hasn't caught up to reality yet, making tonight's start at least 15 cents cheap. The Royals have won 18 of their last 23 games and have a higher team rating than the Yankees, and their 41-22 home record is one of the best, giving them up to 13 cents worth of homefield edge while fighting for a Wild Card on the last day of August; homefield prices increase as games become more important. Pairing the team rating and home price alone gets us to where the price currently is, so the number isn't factoring in Kennedy's incredible run. The proper price on the game should probably be -145, so you've got great value with one of MLB's hottest pitchers on the mound for you.