One more play for Tuesday night with the over 6.5 runs in San Francisco with Zack Greinke vs. Johnny Cueto. Both lineups are at full-strength tonight as Hunter Pence returns for the Giants and the Diamondbacks have an optimal lineup with Pollock, Goldschmidt and Lamb all in the lineup. My wOBA model simulations have this game at 7.6 runs with the actual team lineups in the model.

As I mentioned in my pick on this game's total, the Giants bring out the best in Diamondbacks starter Zack Greinke. He's 8-1 with a 2.41 ERA lifetime against San Fran. The Giants also can't seem to build momentum, as they've gone 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Back Arizona as a big underdog to continue that trend.

The Diamondbacks have been one of the better Over teams lately, in part because their bullpen is awful and most of the their starters have been just as bad. Zack Greinke has gone Over the total in his four starts since returning to the rotation, but today should be a little different as he faces Johnny Cueto for the second time this season. The last time he was at AT&T Park was in April and he beat Madison Bumgarner 2-1. Greinke's last three starts against the Giants have stayed Under and Cueto isn't going to give up many as he's been stingy, allowing one run in each of his last two starts. The Under has cashed in 20 of their last 28 meetings. The total at 6.5 looks scary with Greinke's current form, but the ballpark and today's opponent should bring out his best. He's 8-1 with a 2.41 ERA lifetime against the Giants.