It’s time to pick on Hisashi Iwakuma again tonight vs. Yu Darvish and the Rangers. We picked on Iwakuma last time with the Yankees, and the model is all over the Rangers tonight. Iwakuma just isn't the same pitcher he used to be and he has a tough assignment on the road at Texas. Iwakuma has a .331 wOBA allowed on the road, and the wOBA model is projecting him to struggle early. Take the Rangers on the run line.

According to the Vegas odds, the Rangers have a 62% chance of winning as solid home favorites on Monday. My simulations total disagree with that, giving the Mariners a 54% chance to pull off the upset instead. The public likes Texas pitcher Yu Darvish in this nationally televised game. But Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma has been better lately and just needs more run support, which I believe he will get en route to the underdog win.