The Giants are large home favorites over the Braves with Madison Bumgarner opposing Aaron Blair. Blair is significantly worse than a league average pitcher and should struggle against this Giants lineup that will have Buster Posey back to catch Bumgarner. Bumgarner is very tough on lefties with a .213 wOBA allowed; that's bad news for the Braves, whose best hitters are all left-handed.

When you see Madison Bumgarner (12-8, 2.44 ERA) on the mound for the Giants, you automatically think he will be involved in a low-scoring game. But that has not been the case in his past two starts, which have seen more than 30 runs scored between them. My simulations point to a higher-scoring affair with more than nine runs compared to the Vegas line of 7.5.