For the second day in a row, the wOBA model has issued a strong play on the Over. Today, it's over 7.5 with Gerrit Cole vs. Collin McHugh. McHugh has really struggled on the road, with a .374 wOBA to all hitters including a 1.47 HR/9 rate. Cole has also struggled lately, with three below average starts in a row heading into this day game at PNC park. Home-plate umpire Tim Timmons slightly favors the Under, so he shouldn't do much to hurt our play on the Over.

Two struggling pitchers will take the mound in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, as Gerrit Cole (7-8, 3.30 ERA) of the Pirates (7-10, 4.99) squares off against Collin McHugh of the Astros. McHugh last earned a win on July 23 with Cole picking up a victory more recently on August 2. Regardless, my computer simulations are projecting 9.5 runs in this matchup.

The Pirates look to be an inflated home favorite based on the Vegas line, with Gerrit Cole (7-8, 3.30 ERA) trying to snap a personal three-game winless streak. Even though Collin McHugh (7-10, 4.99) has struggled similarly for the Astros lately, my computer simulations have them winning 55% of the time.