Sliders: Now's not the time to question oneself

I think I've developed a complex.

For some reason, in all my baseball viewing this past week, I had the sinking suspicion my Sliders had gone wrong. Upon further review, I saw a few questionable points, but nothing to make me think I had stuck my proverbial foot in my proverbial mouth.

So maybe all my feelings of insecurity and self-doubt over the last week stem solely from one man's performance. George Sherrill, in the week after I said his save rate would take a dramatic turn for the worse, not only saved four games, but he made a mockery of standard bullpen procedure, saving them on four consecutive days.

That's the kind of performance that makes you wonder if a guy is secretly Batman. And on a more personal note, that's the kind of performance that so contradicts my prediction I actually fear bodily harm. Yes, Sherrill just might make me sterile.

And why wouldn't he? His supremacy feels like a kick square between the legs.

So naturally, you might expect me to make Sherrill my change-up this week. But I've got news for you: not gonna happen. The Orioles won't come close to their current winning percentage of .535, and when it falls -- quite abruptly, I imagine -- so will Sherrill's save rate.

It's like when Danny Graves saved 33 games before the All-Star break in 2004 only to save eight afterward. I don't expect Sherrill to have a split quite so pronounced, but think maybe 25 before the break and 11 afterward.

Too specific of a prediction? Probably. But I'll make up for it with the generals that follow in this week's Fantasy Sliders.

Sliders

Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs

He had failed as starter after an All-Star appearance in 2000, bouncing between three organizations that quickly ran out of patience. He had failed as a closer, compiling a 1.38 WHIP over three seasons. He had run out supporters, second chances and places to turn. No matter how you sliced it, Dempster was in the dumpster.

And that's when the Cubs, almost because they didn't know what else to do with him, moved him back into the rotation.

I've heard of good starters becoming good relievers (John Smoltz). I've heard of bad starters becoming good relievers (Eric Gagne). I've heard of above-average relievers becoming above-average starters (Derek Lowe) and average relievers becoming average starters (Braden Looper). But I've never heard or imagined a bad reliever becoming a good starter.

But Dempster has somehow done it, much to the delight of his Fantasy owners. Through nine starts, only once has he allowed more than three earned runs in a game. And if you credit his incredible stat line to a good first month of the season, keep in mind he's actually improved his ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate over his last three starts, aided in part by a career-best 12-strikeout performance last time out against the Padres. His season walk rate is still a little high at 3.8 per nine innings, but a couple of five-walk games account for most of that. Besides, when you give up only 35 hits in 57 1/3 innings, who cares about a few too many walks?

Dempster's ERA will likely rise to the 3.25-3.50 range and his WHIP to the 1.20-1.25 range before season's end, but even those numbers make him the Cubs' equivalent to John Maine and the kind of pitcher you want on your Fantasy staff all season.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves

Jeff Francoeur isn't quite pulling his weight for owners. (Getty Images)

Humbled by a drop from 29 home runs to 19 last year, Francoeur gave working out a whole new meaning this offseason, adding 17 pounds through an extensive football training program.

If the first seven weeks of the season say anything, all his hard work gave him was the biggest waste of muscles since Odell Thurman.

Francoeur won't hit 30 home runs this year. He'll once again labor to 20. He doesn't even look as good as last year's version with his .263 batting average. At least that one hit .293.

I understand, of course, he has the potential to improve, but he'll need that improvement just to equal last year's numbers. Right now, he's on pace for 11 home runs and a .400 slugging percentage.

The Francoeur of last year still has plenty of Fantasy appeal, so don't cut him, but if you drafted him expecting an improved version, you'll likely end up disappointed.

Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers

In fairness, Bradley actually "slid" last season, when he turned over a new leaf for the Padres before Bud Black turned him over, ending his season.

In two stops in 2007, Bradley compiled a .948 OPS, hitting 13 home runs in 209 at-bats. So far this season, he's shown even more improvement, with a league-leading 1.014 OPS and eight home runs in 134 at-bats, yet he's owned in only 67 percent of CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues.

Stop and think about that for a minute. The top player in the American League in what some consider the most important offensive statistic is waiver fodder in one-third of all Fantasy leagues. I think I might faint.

I know Bradley complained of a sore shoulder early last week, but he came back to hit two home runs. And I know he has an injury history, but who cares? Take what he gives you while it lasts.

He should start in all leagues. Stop wasting your time with Lastings Milledge and grab him before somebody else does.

Brett Myers, SP, Phillies

Have you ever heard the expression "don't mess with a good thing?" Yeah? Well, the Phillies kind of got what they deserve with Myers.

Because they had a good thing -- a great one, even. They had a dominant, honest-to-goodness ace at the top of their rotation, something some teams go decades without, and out of desperation last year, on the eve of a Charlie Manuel headache, they moved him to closer.

And he liked it.

Now that they need him to start again, he doesn't want to. And even worse, he doesn't know how to. Yeah, he's had a couple of dominant starts here and there, just enough to rekindle any waning optimism, but he's had even more six-run outbursts.

I almost wonder if Myers' struggles have anything to do with desire to go back to closing. We've all experienced the phenomenon ourselves. The moment we don't want to do something, it becomes harder to do, and if that something is already as hard as pitching at the major-league level, it becomes next to impossible.

Myers still has the stuff, but he doesn't have the results. Treat him as more of a back-of-the-staff than a front-of-the staff guy in Fantasy.

Clint Barmes, 2B/SS, Rockies

Have you ever gone so long without hearing a once-household name that it sounds weird when you finally do?

Let's try it: Lenny Dykstra, John Jaha, Jason Bere, Mickey Morandini.

Weird, right?

Here's another one: Clint Barmes.

But wait, you say, that last name doesn't belong. Barmes is back, baby, and better than before. He's overcome his .219 batting average from the last two years, reclaimed his starting role, and once and for all forsaken the deer meat, dear me.

As crazy as they sound, I can't dispute any of the above statements. In fact, I'll go so far as to say Barmes' poor hitting the last two seasons was a bigger surprise than his .357 average now. Before taking a tumble down the stairs with sack of deer meat in hand -- I don't mean that figuratively -- he had the Rookie of the Year award all but sewn up in 2005. Finally, he's picked up where he left off. In fact, he looks like an even more complete offensive player now, with three home runs and three stolen bases in 115 at-bats.

Could he possibly perform like Jose Vidro did during his glory years in Montreal? I wouldn't put it past him. If nothing else, he should start at middle infield in all Rotisserie leagues until the hot hitting ends.

Hanging Sliders

Vicente Padilla, SP, Rangers

Few pitchers make a 6-2 record and 3.16 ERA look as objectionable as Padilla does. Fantasy owners in 36 percent of CBSSports.com leagues agree -- and for good reason.

Padilla has a WHIP of 1.39 -- good for him, bad for someone with a 6-2 record and 3.16 ERA. It means those numbers probably should look worse than they do, and a 162-game season has a way of weeding out statistical anomalies.

And Padilla is due for a letdown in other ways. Over the last four seasons, he has a 4.82 ERA in 103 starts -- too much of a track record to suggest he knows how to do anything different.

At best, he could win 15 games with an ERA between 4.25 and 4.50 -- kind of like he did in 2006 -- but those numbers make him barely rosterable in mixed leagues.

Brad Hawpe, OF, Rockies

Hawpe has two factors working in his favor over Francoeur: age (28) and plate discipline (on pace for 92 walks). So I don't buy this .236, three-homer start any more than I buy salt-free pretzels.

Because he walks as often as he does, you know Hawpe still makes pitchers throw him strikes. If they could throw pitches just within arm's length of the catcher, they would, and he'd swing and miss and never break out of his slump. But they have to keep throwing strikes for fear of putting him on base, and if he keeps seeing strikes, he'll have pitches to hit once he breaks out of his slump.

So at this point, I still have to call 25 home runs a certainty for Hawpe. They might come later than you want, but they'll come, and you'll feel silly if you part with him before they do.

Change-up

Melky Cabrera, OF, Yankees

Got Melky?

Then you're probably not happy right now. Neither am I since I called him awesome two short weeks ago.

Well, I didn't use the exact word "awesome," but I gave the general impression.

He looked like a legitimate power breakout after he hit six home runs in the season's first five weeks, but since then, he's gone 7-for-42 (.167) with exactly one extra-base hit.

Maybe I just caught him on a hot streak.

So I take it all back -- the power, the Bobby Abreu-Hideki Matsui genetic experiments, the comparisons to Alex Rios. Cabrera, still only 23, might develop 25-homer power someday, but he has to clear a few other hurdles first.

You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Sliders in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.