By the Numbers: Do you need help with Hafner?

Many of the biggest stories so far in 2008 have been about young players and whether or not their phenomenal performances are for real. Conor Jackson, Justin Upton, Micah Owings and Max Scherzer have all unexpectedly grabbed the attention of Fantasy owners everywhere. Now our attention turns to players who are neither young nor excelling nor Diamondbacks. These players are, however, turning in unexpected performances, just not the good kind.

Of course, a lot of big name players are off to wretched starts: Ryan Howard, Vladimir Guerrero and Derek Jeter are just a few. While their underwhelming performances are a headache for their owners, practically no one is benching or dropping them, nor should they. Other players, such as Kenji Johjima and Ryan Zimmerman, have suffered from unusually low H/BIP rates, so owners have every reason to stick by them. But what about those players who have been good enough to roster in the past, even in mixed leagues, but just haven't played like themselves this year? Slow-starting underachievers, this column is for you.

Below are half a dozen early season slackers from the American League. Reviewing their statistical trends, we can separate the rosterable from the waiver fodder. Next week, we'll continue this depressing exercise with players from the National League.

Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland: He may have the face of cold-blooded killer Anton Chigurh from No Country for Old Men, but at the plate, Hafner has been about as menacing as Ned Flanders. It's hard to think of another hitter who has declined so rapidly during what should be the peak of his career. Though Pronk's H/BIP is only 26 percent, his declining power numbers give us a hint that his low rate isn't so fluky. He just isn't hitting the ball with the same authority. On top of that, he is striking out more and walking less, so there are no signs of Hafner becoming useful again even as a source for average or runs.

Andy Pettitte, SP, N.Y. Yankees: Few starting pitchers have been as reliable as Pettitte, so I was surprised when I found myself cutting him in a mixed league last week. He still has a serviceable 3.77 ERA, but it’s not enough to make up for the 26 strikeouts in 43 plus innings. When you look at the trend below, there is little reason to expect that the Ks are going to come back. When your skill numbers are only marginally better than that of Livan Hernandez, the days of the sub-5.00 ERA are going to be very limited.

Gary Matthews Jr., OF, L.A. Angels: When Matthews came out of nowhere to hit .313 and score over 100 runs in 2006, many Fantasy owners understood it for what it was: a career year from a 32 year-old. This was not a breakout that led to even bigger things. Still, if you thought the dropoff would be this steep, raise your hand. As I thought ... not too many of us thought he would regress to a level below his career norms this quickly.

The good news for Matthews' owners is that he really isn't this bad. His power has declined, but not dramatically, and not to the extent that we would expect only 26 percent of balls in play to become base hits. The biggest concern in his trends is the rising whiff rate, but this is merely a return to his freer-swinging ways from earlier this decade. He still has enough power, speed and on-base skills to be even a mixed-league option, as long as you don't need him to bat above .260.

Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle: Since becoming a Mariner in 2006, Washburn ceased to become a pitcher worthy of mixed-league consideration, but he remained a solid option for AL-only leagues. This year, with his ERA approaching 5.00, it would be hard to blame owners in any Fantasy format for giving up on him. Never a big strikeout pitcher, Washburn is now failing to deliver in any of the Fantasy categories.

Washburn is currently rostered in only 18 percent of all CBS Sports.com leagues, yet his teammate Carlos Silva has found a team to call home in more than three times as many leagues. This is despite the fact that Washburn's K/9 rate is 55 percent higher, their walk rates are almost identical, and they have both given up five home runs. In other words, Washburn has been arguably the better pitcher, yet he is not nearly as popular with Fantasy owners. As usual, an inflated H/BIP rate is the culprit, so his ERA and WHIP should return to their normal levels or better.

Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland: Though never in the elite, Ellis has alternated between being an above-average second baseman and a run-of-the-mill one. After an impressive '07 season, he has fallen far back in the pack once again. The 2008 Ellis model is definitely less powerful, but he is also more selective. He is seeing an average of 4.1 pitches per plate appearance this year, walking much more often, and striking out at a lower rate than at any time in his career. Maybe Ellis won't hit 19 home runs again, like he did last year, but with improved contact skills, he should still be good to hit .270 and score 80 runs. In other words, he is still a solid option for AL-only leagues, and should be monitored as a potential pickup for mixed leagues.

Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa Bay: In 2006, Bartlett hit .309 and established himself as a promising Fantasy force. Last year he continued to tease owners by swiping 23 bases, but he wasn't able to sustain his batting average. For those who were hoping that Bartlett's game would come together this year, he has been a major disappointment. He is on pace for another 20-steal season, but he is neither getting on base nor hitting with any power. Hindsight being what it is, 2006 is looking more and more like a fluke, and his viability as a Fantasy player seems increasingly like a mirage.

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.