Aces are wild in early Fantasy season

Is it ever bad to draw an ace in poker? It is when you have 8, 9, 10, jack and you bet your one good kidney, hoping to pull a queen or a seven.

So now I pose the question, when is it bad to have an ace in Fantasy Baseball? (Hopefully, you don't have any leagues in which one good kidney is the entry fee.)

We've already talked about how sketchy pitching has been this season, but it's not just from the young hurlers. We're talking 19-game winners that are on pace to lose 25 games! Strikeout kings that are working on the back diamonds in Triple-A! And future superstars are giving out free passes to first base like they're selling Tahiti Village timeshare condos!

What in the name of Christy Mathewson is going on here!?!

Aces with bent corners

C.C. Sabathia, CLE: Let me offer up these statistics for you:

• Sabathia's career-high Cy Young '07 numbers: 34 starts, 241 IP, 19 wins, 209 Ks
• Sabathia's career-low Cy Young '07 numbers: 37 walks, 3.21 ERA, 1.140 WHIP
• Sabathia's on-pace numbers after four starts: 40 starts, 8 wins, 24 losses, 202 Ks, 129 BBs, 10.10 ERA, 2.16 WHIP

My cholesterol numbers don't even look that bad. Before Tuesday night's start at Kansas City, Sabathia had the lowest Head-to-Head score in the BIGS league (minus-18). That means you'd be better off starting Mathewson, who has been dead for the past 83 years, than Sabathia. (Note: you'll have to add Mathewson as an "Unlisted player.")

How bad are things getting? Edgar Renteria hit a grand slam off him in his last start. The same Renteria that has never hit more than 16 homers in any one season.

Top 10 Things Sabathia has already lost this season

1. Three games
2. Command of every one of his pitches
3. Confidence in himself
4. Millions of dollars in pending free-agency money
5. Indians' fans love (they booed him off the mound)
6. Countless games for his Fantasy owners
7. His sanity (he's yelling at himself on the mound)
8. 27 percent of Fantasy owners' patience (he's starting in only 73 percent of leagues in Week 4)
9. Five baseballs. (5 HRA tie him for ninth-most in majors)
10. A chance at back-to-back Cy Young Awards

Were the innings too much last season? Is he completely burnt out? I have a couple big reasons to still hold out hope for him. He's not talking about any injuries, and free agency still looms, which means he's hoping to do even better than we're hoping him to be. That cash incentive has a funny way of straightening out a player's rough patch.

Consider Carlos Zambrano from last season. He entered the season upset that the Cubs hadn't signed him to a new deal. So with free agency looming, he went 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA, 6 HRA, 16 walks and only 16 strikeouts in his first four starts of April. (Granted, Sabathia would kill for a 7.77 ERA right now, but you get my point.) Zambrano finally settled down and went 4-2 with a 4.05 ERA, 16 walks and 35 strikeouts over his next seven starts. He finally signed in August and finished up September going 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA.

Sabathia was one of my bust possibilities entering the season, mainly because of the high workload from last season. But I have confidence that Sabathia will rebound to be a decent pitcher again this season -- but don't bet your one good kidney on it.

Justin Verlander, DET: It's fitting that Verlander follows Sabathia in this write-up, since the two of them are even getting traded for each other straight up in CBSSports.com leagues right now.

Once again, this is an ace that has three losses to start the season, but Verlander has looked much better than Sabathia overall. Ironically, Verlander's worst outing was on April 17 -- against Sabathia's Indians. He's going deeper into games and having some excellent innings, showing flashes of his '07 self, and his control has been a little better (4.5 BB/9 compared to Sabathia's 7.0). He had a solid outing Tuesday to earn his first win, a sign that he may be settling in.

Comparing Verlander against the rest of the majors, however, is a different story. He has been brutal this April, no doubt, but the Tigers' offense has been just as bad -- as has their bullpen. Only six other clubs (including the Indians) have bullpen ERAs higher than Detroit's 4.90.

This player hits a little closer to home, since he was the most expensive pitcher ($22) I drafted in the Mixed Tout Wars in April. After three painful weeks of him blistering my team ERA, I decided to bench my ace. That's nearly 10 percent of my budget riding the pine for Tuesday's home game at Comerica Park against Texas (a win of course). Since we have a Saturday lineup deadline, he's only sitting for one start. Had this been a two-start week, which is the case for many of you with Monday lineup deadlines, he'd still be in my starting rotation.

The Tigers are already starting to turn it around -- only three teams have scored more runs than Detroit in the past seven days -- so don't sell on Verlander. You won't come close to the value you should get. As a matter of fact, you need to go after Verlander in any league you don't own him in to see if anyone bites. Make sure you offer quality players in return -- you don't want to be the low-baller in your league -- but now is the time to buy low.

Ben Sheets, MIL: While the previous players are off to their worst starts, with three losses and ballooning ERAs, Sheets is actually off to his best start (three wins, 0.96 ERA). But on Saturday, just a few days after we interviewed him for a podcast, he left a game early with soreness in his right triceps.

Ben Sheets was one of the few aces pitching well, but yet another injury derailed him. (Getty Images)

I asked Sheets about his injury history and he responded that he hadn't done anything different entering this spring in hopes of preventing the odd ailments that he has endured. He's now saying that he felt the injury earlier last week, before our interview. He'll miss at least one start (Wednesday vs. STL), and if you're like me, he'll miss a start on someone else's Fantasy team. Without question, he's a stud when healthy, but he has dealt with a strained groin, a torn finger tendon, shoulder tendinitis, a sore chest muscle and an ear infection over recent seasons. It's like my grandpa pitches for Milwaukee.

Sheets did some long-tossing in the outfield on Monday, and told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he'd be pitching if the Brewers were in the later stages of a pennant race. "I don't know about July but if it was September I'd be out there," he said. "I'm pretty sure I'm capable of pitching right now." That's good to hear at least.

This ace got a crease in it after the 2004 season -- and like any marked card, now you know what you're getting every time it's dealt your way.

Rich Harden, OAK: Speaking of bent cards, this one has been spindled, mutilated and shredded. His stock climbed through the roof again after a great spring and two impressive starts against the Red Sox (striking out 15 in 11 innings), but he has a strained muscle now below his right (pitching arm) shoulder blade. They're calling it a mild subscapularis strain in his back, but if you want the technical term for it, it's can't-tie-his-shoes-itis. He threw on Sunday, but the A's still have no timetable for him to get back on the mound, although he's saying May.

Meanwhile, owners have jumped off his bandwagon in droves, cutting his ownership from 95 percent down to 49 percent in five weeks. You can likely trade for him easily, so consider making a deal with another player as the main target and him as the throw-in.

Josh Beckett, BOS: He was pulled from Tuesday's start against the Angels because of a stiff neck. Fantasy owners can live with the little bumps and bruises (and back and neck pains), but if his arm, elbow or shoulder starts to have issues, that's a different story. He hasn't had a great start to the season anyway, with a 5.12 ERA so far. He has faced the Yankees twice though, and he was able to go eight innings in his last outing. Like Sabathia, he pitched a career-high in innings in '07 (including his playoff innings), so fatigue was certainly a possibility coming into this season.

Francisco Liriano, MIN: He was tabbed as mini-Johan coming up a couple years ago, leading the minors in strikeouts as a lefty in Minnesota's system. After a fabulous '06 season, he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Seventeen months later, the rehabbed starter has had mixed results. He was drafted as a No. 3 starter in many formats, which is insane considering he has just one year of major league experience and he's coming off major reconstructive surgery. But there he was getting drafted 103rd overall on average, as the 28th starting pitcher, in front of pitchers like Tim Hudson, James Shields and Jered Weaver.

Liriano has walked five batters in each of his first two starts, going no deeper than the fifth inning. He has just seven strikeouts total, but those will come. It's those walks that are curious -- he never allowed five walks in any of his previous major league games. Manager Ron Gardenhire is happy with his velocity, but he's just missing the zone right now. Again, with more than a year off that can be expected. Still, the fervor over his return seems to have died a bit after he didn't strike out nine in his season opener. Interestingly, Lirano's Fantasy owners are also handling him with kid gloves -- only 45 percent of the 93 percent that own him are starting him each week.

Roy Oswalt, HOU: The Wizard did his best to not make this list after a nice start against San Diego Monday night (7 IP, 3 ER, 6 HA, 6 Ks). His first three starts were shaky, to say the least, with 16 ER total in 16 innings (9.00 ERA, math majors). But he has put his owners' minds at ease with his first back-to-back wins since last August. He has walked only six batters in five starts, so we know his control is superb, but his command of the strike zone was in question early this season. He's good now, and should be solid for Houston -- especially at home at Minute Maid Park where he went 9-1 with a 1.91 ERA last season (compared to 5-6 with a 4.77 ERA on the road).

Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy, NYY: Here are the Yankees' diaper dandies combined statistics: 8 GS, 0-5 record, 30 1/3 IP, 9.20 ERA, 23 BB and 23 Ks. I combined their stats because so far, they've been pretty close to each other in production after four starts apiece, although Kennedy has struggled a little more. While Kennedy's stats might be worse, it's Hughes that is hurting his owners because he was expected to be much better than his teammate. Hughes was drafted about 80 spots higher on CBSSports.com leagues on average.

It's certainly a stretch putting these two players in the "ace" mix, but I thought it was important to mention their slow starts as a tandem. The Yankees' real ace, Chien-Ming Wang, was off to a great start to the season until he ran into the Red Sox last week.

The young superstar rookie class of 2006 has Fantasy owners a little spoiled. Shaky starts to the season, sprinkled with superb outings, are the norm for talented, young arms -- especially ones under the New York spotlight.

Chad Billingsley, LAD: I fell in love with this dude (did I just write that?) last season. Going from the Dodgers' bullpen to the rotation in late June, he became a Fantasy force to be reckoned with, going 8-5 with a 101 strikeouts in 112 innings.

His '08 season has been unspectacular, but almost everything the Dodgers have done has been unspectacular. The start of his season was washed out by rain, and he came on in relief in his first two appearances. He got bombed in his first start, and he has gone five innings in his past two outings. The bright spot? He has 17 strikeouts in his past two starts.

The Dodgers offense hasn't done a great job (or any job for that matter) of supporting him. They have scored an average of 0.61 runs in support of his starts ... It's like they hate him! That will turn around, and the Dodgers have a very good bullpen that has underperformed also. Own Billingsley when everything turns in his favor.

Scott Kazmir, TB: Kid K will make his second rehab start at Class A Vero Beach Wednesday. Kazmir (elbow) is only owned in 49 percent of leagues right now -- let's not forget that he was the AL strikeout king and would have been the major league strikeout king had Jake Peavy not pitched the Padres 163rd game against the Rockies in a one-game playoff. The team is hoping to get him back in early May.

John Lackey, LAA: He'll have his first rehab start Thursday with Class A Rancho Cucamonga (who doesn't think of Bugs Bunny when they hear that?) He should get three rehab starts to build up his arm strength before returning to the majors, possibly on May 14 against the White Sox. He's also owned in less than 50 percent of leagues.

By the way, Mathewson averaged a 21-10 record with a 2.13 ERA and 143 strikeouts in his 17-year career. From what I gather, Big Six was worth an early-round draft pick.

2008 Tout Wars

• Main website
• Tout Wars: Mixed Standings and Rosters
• Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters
• Tout Wars: NL-only Standings and Rosters

Tout Wars: AL-only Standings and Rosters

Thoughts from around the Tout Wars

Jed Latkin, (the movie version of Sam Walker for FantasyLand): This week could go down as one of the big mistakes of the season as we debated endlessly over what to bid on Armando Galarraga and Jeff Niemann. We knew that Niemann might not even get a start for us (and sure enough he won't) but were determined to improve our pitching. Looking around the league, there were a few teams that needed pitchers but Jeff Erickson ended up winning Galarraga by besting us by $1 ($11 vs our bid of $10) and he didn't even need anyone. We assumed that both Niemann and Galarraga would get very high bids so we decided to target Niemann and bid $40 on him while bidding only $10 on Galarraga. Time will tell but for now it looks quite silly that we chose to place all our eggs in the Durham-bound Niemann basket. We ended up paying $24 for Niemann as thankfully the vickrey system placed us a buck above Erickson's $23 bid. As for Galarraga, he has now pitched two great games in a row and has shown an ability to get out lefties as well as righties. Knowing that he was going up against a lineup dominated by righties we probably should have been more aggressive, especially since he will only be facing two decent lefties in his next start against the Angels (Casey Kotchman and Garret Anderson).

On the offensive side we didn't deem any of the current crop of free agent hitters worth a money bid so we submitted $0 bids on Duran, Jed Lowrie, Joe Inglett, Jamey Carroll and Joe Thurston. We ended up with Carroll and are happy, as he should get some runs and a decent average as a backup. The hot offensive commodity of the week ended up being Inglett as Lawr Michaels paid $12 for him besting Sam Walker and Ron Shandler.

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