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Sliders.
And I don't mean a miniaturized hamburger or a sci-fi series that aired on a rival network in the mid '90s. I also don't mean a breaking pitch often employed by hard-throwing closers, though that's kind of the theme I'm going for.
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| Nate McLouth has a solid combination of power and speed that you might find useful. (AP) |
Players -- they get hot, and they get cold. But sometimes hidden among those streaks, those general inconsistencies of a season, are breakouts and collapses -- those moments when a player does something so good that he works his way into Fantasy relevance or something so awful that he fades himself out of it.
Because in Fantasy, you can play streaks, sure. You can ride the hot hand and toss him back on waivers when the magic runs out, and no one would accuse you of not setting your lineup if you did. But if you can single out the players whose hot streaks actually mean something, well, then you're playing Fantasy Baseball.
So with that in mind, I've created this column. Each week, I'll give you my list of sliders -- players whose Fantasy value has, to put it simply, slid. I'll try not to get caught up in streaks and instead focus on the statistical shifts that have some real meaning.
Will I make a few poor assessments? Sure, but I hope to own up to them when I do. Will I have to go out on a few limbs? Of course, but I plan to make my level of confidence on each player abundantly clear. I'm not trying to trick anyone, after all.
And so, with the concept of the column now fully introduced, let's play ball.
Sliders
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates
Obviously, he won't hit over .400 all season, and he'll have to take an 0-fer at the plate at some point -- something he has yet to do through the first seven games. But as for his one home run and two stolen bases in the first week, that part of his game is for real.
Really, McLouth had sleeper written all over him going into the season if you could look past the bias of having never seen his name in the top 100 of Baseball America. Take his numbers in 329 at-bats last year and project them out over a full season -- let's say a conservative estimate of 550 at-bats -- and he would have hit 22 home runs and stolen 37 bases. He wasn't a big prospect, no, but why can't he become the next Eric Byrnes?
Not every good hitter needs to arrive to flashbulbs and autograph seekers and screaming girls and jet flyovers and standing ovations from home fans who finally get to wear their pre-ordered jerseys. Just ask Matt Holliday.
Brandon Lyon, RP, Diamondbacks
When some middle relievers win a closing role, the Fantasy-playing community lets out a collective cheer. But when the Diamondbacks bestowed that honor on Lyon, everyone kind of just furrowed his brow and grimaced.
But you hoped. You know you did. You thought maybe Lyon would call upon whatever helped him save those 14 games in 2005, disregarding the 6.49 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.
And if you acted on that hope, you got a healthy dose of reality right out of the gate.
Lyon blew two saves in one week -- his first on the job at that -- and he has a young fireballer behind him in Tony A. Pena who most outside spectators thought should have gotten the job in the first place. Not a good combination.
Hopefully, you avoided Lyon on Draft Day, but if you ended up with him as your second or third closer, you better make sure you can still get your hands on Pena.
Ben Sheets, SP, Brewers
Of all the sliders this week, Sheets is the one you have no chance of grabbing off the waiver wire. Someone no doubt drafted him in your league. But the point of this column is more to assess players' value than to advise you on transactions, so hear me out.
For years, Sheets had ace talent, as evidenced by his 264 strikeouts and 0.98 WHIP in 2004. The questions with him always centered on health. But then last year, in addition to having his usual stint on the DL, his strikeout rate declined to 6.8 per nine innings and his WHIP rose to 1.24 -- numbers not befitting of a Fantasy ace. And then when word came out this spring that he had developed a new arm slot, Fantasy owners had to wonder if he had gone off the deep end.
Well, wonder no more.
The strikeouts are back (15 in 15 1/3 innings). The command is back (0.59 WHIP). And even though he's made only two starts -- and one against the lowly Giants -- anytime a pitcher allows less than one hit per two innings pitched (seven in 15 1/3), he's proven he has a serious advantage over hitters.
So can Sheets stay healthy? That remains to be seen. But if he does, he looks like a sure-fire Fantasy ace -- and one you hopefully snagged in the middle rounds.
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks
All those things I just said McLouth isn't, Upton is. He came up to the majors last year with all the fanfare -- the billboard ads, the radio interviews, the screaming girls -- and why not? The organization had declared him major-league ready at the age of 20, and he boasted that rare combination of youth and talent that makes you feel a little better about taking Fantasy advice from a 24-year-old.
He had the makings of a prodigy. And then, seven months later, he showed it, blasting three home runs in three consecutive games in the 2008 season's opening week. Forget all that talk of him being raw or overmatched. Forget his two home runs or .364 slugging percentage in 140 at-bats last year. Get him off of your waiver wires, into your lineups and into your hearts. It's here, oh yes -- Justin time.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates
He just doesn't look like he has it anymore, does he? After he slumped to .247 with 21 home runs last year, we all blamed tendinitis in his surgically repaired right knee. But then he slugged .339 this spring and has four hits in 22 at-bats so far this season -- and only one of them for extra bases.
Honestly, what's there to love?
OK, I know you love that .286-35-109 line from 2006 and that .306-32-101 line from 2005, but what if Bay's slump last year had to do with something other than his knee? Or what if his knee still doesn't really feel any better? Until he proves neither is the case, I can't trust him as one of my top three outfielders in a 10- or 12-team mixed league.
And if he doesn't get anything going by the end of April, I might seriously have to think about cutting him.
Hanging Sliders
These guys look like sliders, but not so fast! Their recent performances might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal. 
Bill Hall, 3B, Brewers
How Hall hit 35 home runs in 2006 is one of the greatest unsolved mysteries of the modern era. If I came out of a two-year coma today and ran into someone on the street who told me about it, I'd excuse it as popular folklore, something akin to the Loch Ness Monster.
He's just not that type of player.
Could he hit 20? Yeah, but I wouldn't count on him for any more. His 14 home runs in 452 at-bats last year fall about in line with his 17 in 501 in 2005. And he didn't exhibit any real power potential in the minors.
So when you saw Hall hitting two bombs in the season's first week and felt that old sensation to jump on the Bill bandwagon burning inside of you all over again, hopefully you took a cold shower and let the feeling pass -- unless, of course, you want a guy who'll hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases.
Kerry Wood, RP, Cubs
Yeah, so Wood recorded three saves in the first week and, apart from his one appearance in a non-save situation, looked good doing it, striking out three and allowing one hit. I get it -- he has stuff.
But he always had stuff. The issue with him more than anything was health, and while working in relief might lessen the overall strain on his arm, who knows if it'll lessen it enough?
The jury's still out on Wood. And really, three good appearances in four opportunities does not a good closer make. The way I see it, Carlos Marmol is still a necessary handcuff for Wood owners.
Change-up
Every week, I make terrible errors in judgment. It happens to us all, and if it didn't, Fantasy wouldn't be a game worth playing. Fortunately, I permit myself the opportunity to correct one of my mistakes by throwing a change-up.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs
Back in the preseason, I wrote an Overrated and Overvalued column in which I pointed out a few players I thought were going too early in drafts. And while I stand by my inclusion of Zambrano on that list, believing the risk of him imploding made him not worth an early-round investment, he's done enough in his first two starts to convince me that whatever led to his increasing walks and decreasing strikeouts over the last few years is a matter well behind him.
Two starts, 13 2/3 innings, 12 strikeouts, one walk -- ain't nothing wrong with any of that.
So if you ignored my heed and drafted Zambrano as your ace, take heart. I'm officially in your corner now.
You can e-mail Scott your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Draft Day in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state.We'll answer as many as we can.
